Market Recap
Spot gold steadied near $1,950/oz on Thursday, paring early gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone tempered market optimism. Although the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, Powell’s remarks that “another cut in December is not a given” dampened investor sentiment and fueled a dollar rebound. Meanwhile, crude oil climbed to $60.18/bbl, supported by a sharper-than-expected drop in US inventories and upbeat remarks from President Trump on trade progress.
Gold
Gold prices initially surged over 2% following the Fed’s rate cut but quickly gave back most of the gains, ending the session up only 0.3%. The Fed lowered rates to the 3.75%–4.00% range, marking the second cut this year. However, Powell’s comments — emphasizing that policy is “not on a pre-set course” — signaled division within the Fed and scaled back expectations for another move in December.
Analyst Peter Grant noted that gold reacted “logically” to Powell’s attempt to dial back rate-cut speculation. As futures markets reduced bets on further easing, the dollar gained strength, putting pressure on gold. Despite the pullback, gold remains up over 50% year-to-date, though easing geopolitical and trade tensions have recently weighed on its safe-haven appeal.
Gold Technical outlook:
Gold’s daily chart shows a bearish long upper shadow candle, with prices slipping below the lower boundary of the recent consolidation zone. The 5- and 10-day moving averages have formed a bearish crossover, while the 1-hour chart reveals weak bullish momentum and expanding Bollinger Bands, signaling continued downside risk. Immediate resistance lies at $3,980–$4,010, while support stands at $3,910–$3,880.
Gold Trading Insight:
Bias remains toward selling on rallies while cautiously buying near support zones.
Oil
Oil prices advanced Wednesday after US EIA data showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude and fuel inventories, easing fears of oversupply. Brent settled at $64.92 and WTI at $60.48 per barrel.
The US reported a 7 million-barrel crude draw, far exceeding forecasts, while optimism surrounding US–Korea trade discussions also supported sentiment. Analysts noted that doubts about oversupply persist as global demand remains steady.
Technical outlook:
Oil maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias, trading within a consolidation channel. The MACD shows weakening bearish momentum, suggesting potential for short-term rebounds, though resistance at $62.5–$63.5 could cap gains. Support levels are seen near $59.0–$58.0.
Trading Insight:
Favor buying on dips, while watching for potential resistance near the upper range.
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